Austin is back to a balanced market. Here is what changed and what is next.

Through May 2026, the Central Texas market has shifted into the most balanced posture I have seen in five years. Inventory is up. Days-on-market are higher than the frothy days of 2021 but lower than the spring 2024 cooling. Buyer power is real for the first time since interest rates spiked. Here is where the numbers actually sit and what I am telling clients about the back half of the year.

Inventory: roughly 4.2 months supply, MSA-wide

The five-county Austin MSA (Travis, Williamson, Hays, Bastrop, Caldwell) is sitting at about 4.2 months of inventory as of late May. That is the highest reading since 2011. For context, a balanced market is generally 4 to 6 months. Below 4 is a seller's market. Above 6 is a buyer's market.

We are right in the middle, which is unusual for Austin. The implication: pricing power has shifted toward buyers but not all the way.

Days-on-market: 58 days median

Median DOM has stretched to about 58 days across the MSA, with notable regional variation:

  • Westlake and Lake Travis: 71 days
  • Cedar Park and Leander: 51 days
  • Round Rock and Pflugerville: 48 days
  • Lakeway and Bee Cave: 79 days
  • East Austin and Mueller: 42 days

Higher-end homes ($1.2M+) are taking longer. Sub-$650K stock is moving faster.

Median price: down 3.6% year-over-year

Travis County median is $529,000 as of May 2026, down about 3.6% from a year ago. Williamson is down 2.1%. Hays is essentially flat. The price softness is concentrated in the $750K to $1.5M band, which has the most luxury inventory hangover from the 2021-2022 builder pipeline.

What is interesting: the $400K to $600K starter band is actually UP slightly year-over-year. First-time buyer demand is the strongest segment of the market right now.

Rates: 6.5 to 7.0% conventional, 5.875% to 6.5% with strong file

The 30-year conventional rate has been bouncing between 6.5% and 7.0% all spring. Buydowns and seller concessions are doing the heavy lifting on payment affordability. A 2-1 temporary buydown drops the effective Year 1 rate to roughly 4.5 to 5.0% for clients with a $10K to $15K seller concession.

VA and FHA rates are holding about 0.25 to 0.5% below conventional. Jumbo is now essentially at par with conforming for files above 740 FICO and 25% down.

What I expect for the back half

Three things to watch:

  1. The Fed. If the Fed cuts in September, the 10-year Treasury could pull mortgage rates into the high 5s by year-end. That changes affordability math overnight.
  2. Builder concessions. New construction concessions are heavy and growing. Builders are giving away $25K to $40K in incentives plus rate buydowns. Resale sellers will have to match or accept longer DOM.
  3. The October and November window. Last year, late fall was the strongest seller's market of 2025. Inventory thinned, motivated buyers showed up, and prices held. The pattern is likely to repeat if rates ease.

What I am telling buyers right now

Two things. First, do not wait for rates to drop before you start looking. The day rates drop 50 basis points is the day every fence-sitter re-enters the market and pricing tightens. You want to be already under contract.

Second, write your offer with a rate buydown ask. Sellers are saying yes. A 2-1 buydown plus $5K in closing costs is normal in this market. Take it.

What I am telling sellers

Price ahead of the market, not at it. Homes priced 2 to 3% under the obvious CMA number are getting two or three offers in the first two weeks. Homes priced AT the CMA number are sitting 60 to 90 days and then reducing.

Stage the kitchen. Paint everything neutral. Clean the curb. The fundamentals of merchandising win in a balanced market.

One caveat

Austin's economy is still bifurcated. Tech layoffs have been quiet but real. Tesla and Samsung have both moderated their hiring posture. The downstream effect on housing demand is hard to predict. Underwriting your purchase to a single-income scenario is a smart hedge.

Want to walk through your numbers? Talk to Austen.