Rates Are Holding Steady — But Here’s What You Should Know
Rates are off to a pretty slow start this morning. If you’re looking at a rate sheet today, expect it to look almost like yesterday’s — maybe just a teeny tiny bit worse (and yes, that’s an official term in mortgage world 😜). There’s not much going on in the economy today, so we’re likely to see mortgage rates kind of float around without any big changes. No need to rush into locking a rate just yet — but it’s always smart to be alert in case things shift.
What’s the Fed Up To?
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is speaking today, but don’t expect any news about mortgage rates or rate cuts. This is what they call the “Fed blackout period,” which means Fed members aren’t allowed to talk about money policy until their next big meeting. He’s just chatting about banking regulations today — nothing that should move the markets.
There is some political drama, though. The Trump administration (minus the Treasury Secretary) has been calling for Powell to step down. He’s already said he’s staying put, and I doubt he’ll even address it today. And if you’re wondering who’s being floated as a replacement — it’s Bill Pulte. Let’s just say… he’s not exactly a financial genius. This feels more like a political favor than a smart move. 🤷♂️
So, What’s the Risk Right Now?
Here’s the bigger picture: A lot of people are starting to worry about something called the Kindleberger Spiral (we know — sounds like a fancy latte). Basically, it’s what happens when countries start slapping tariffs on each other. It makes trade harder, slows things down, and causes big money problems behind the scenes.
When that happens, the economy needs a boost — usually from the Fed cutting rates and helping keep things moving. But so far, the Fed hasn’t been doing that, even though other countries are. That could be a problem down the line, especially if things keep slowing.
Are We Headed for a Repeat of the Past?
History nerds will remember that back in the 1920s, Britain was falling apart economically after World War I, and the U.S. didn’t step up quickly enough. That slow response helped lead to the Great Depression. We’re not saying that’s happening now, but the pattern looks familiar — and that’s why people are paying attention.
The Technical Side (a.k.a. Mortgage Nerd Stuff)
Mortgage Bonds (which help determine rates) are holding strong above key levels. That’s a good sign.
If Bonds keep improving, there’s room for rates to get a little better.
The 10-year Treasury (another big factor in mortgage rates) is dropping slightly, which also helps.
So… Should You Lock Your Rate?
Here’s the simple take:
Next 15 Days:
Rates are steady and slowly improving.
No major risks on the calendar this week.
If you’re feeling patient, floating (waiting) is still a good call.
Next 30 Days:
This week is calm, but next week could get interesting.
We’ve got a big Fed meeting, a job report, and inflation data coming up.
More talk about tariffs could shake things up too.
If you’re not locking today — totally fine. But keep an eye on things as we head into next week. The market feels calm now, but that could change quickly depending on what headlines pop up.
